August US non-farm payrolls +22K vs +75K expected

August US non-farm payrolls +22K vs +75K expected

• US jobs report for August 2025

• Non-Farm Payrolls +22K vs +75K expected

• Private Payrolls +38K vs +75K expected. Prior 83k

• Manufacturing Payrolls: -12K vs -5K expected. Prior -11k.

• Government Payrolls -16K vs -10K prior

• Unemployment Rate 4.3% vs 4.3% expected. Prior 4.2%

• Average Earnings MoM +0.3% vs +0.3% expected. Prior 0.3%

• Average Earnings YoY +3.7% vs +3.7% expected. Prior 3.9%

• Average Workweek Hours 34.2K vs 34.3 expected Prior 34.3

• Labor Force Participation Rate 62.2% vs 62.3% prior

• U6 Underemployment 8.1% vs 7.7% prior

• Two-month net revision -22K

The US dollar is down across the board on this with USD/JPY down a half-cent. Gold is near a new record as the market prices in more Fed rate cuts on this.

The market is now fully priced for a September rate cut with about a 3% chance of a 50 bps cut. The larger action is further out the curve where the October meeting is now up to 80% for a cut. For the year ahead, there is 130 bps of easing priced in.