Canada CPI for July 0.3% versus 0.3% estimate. Year on year 1.7% versus 1.8% expected

Canada CPI for July 0.3% versus 0.3% estimate. Year on year 1.7% versus 1.8% expected

• Canada CPI data for the month of July 2025

• Prior month 0.1% MoM. YoY 1.9%
• CPI MoM 0.3% vs 0.3% estimate
• CPI YoY 1.7% vs 1.8% estimate
• CPI median 3.1% vs 3.1% estimate. Prior 13.1%
• CPI Trim 3.0% versus 3.1% estimate. Prior 3.0%
• CPI Common 2.6% vs 2.6% prior

BoC Core measures:

• BoC core YoY 2.6% vs 2.7% last month
• BoC core MoM 0.1%

Details of the report:

• Gasoline prices fell 16.1% YoY in July, continuing the impact of the carbon levy removal; down 0.7% MoM on lower crude oil and higher OPEC+ supply.

• Shelter costs rose 3.0% YoY, led by rent (+5.1%) and natural gas (less negative at -7.3%); mortgage interest cost growth slowed to +4.8%.

• Grocery prices accelerated to +3.4% YoY (vs. 2.8% in June), driven by coffee (+28.6%), confectionery (+11.8%), and fruit, especially grapes (+29.7%).

• Regional highlight: Newfoundland & Labrador saw the biggest inflation acceleration, led by electricity prices (+13.9%).