Fed preview: Most banks expect 25 bp cut, some 50 bp bigger easing, bigger impact, move

Fed preview: Most banks expect 25 bp cut, some 50 bp bigger easing, bigger impact, move

• A 25 bps cut is largely priced in and may not move markets much unless guidance shifts. A 50 bps cut, however, would likely spark USD weakness, a Treasury rally, and could fuel a risk-on move in equities and gold.

Fed FOMC rate cut expectations (Statement due on Wednesday 17 September 2025 at 2pm US Eastern time, 1800 GMT).

Most banks lean toward a 25 bps trim, but a couple of houses see the Fed moving faster with a 50 bps cut.

25 bps cut (consensus view):

• BMO

• Barclays

• CIBC

• Goldman Sachs

• JPMorgan

• Morgan Stanley

• Nomura

• RBC

• Scotiabank

• Wells Fargo

50 bps cut (more aggressive):

• Standard Chartered

• Société Générale

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A 25 bps cut is largely priced in and may not move markets much unless guidance shifts.

A 50 bps cut, however, would likely spark USD weakness, a Treasury rally, and could fuel a risk-on move in equities and gold.