Friday's US jobs report (NFP) is critical for the short-term direction of the US dollar

Friday's US jobs report (NFP) is critical for the short-term direction of the US dollar

• The US dollar could come under renewed pressure if U.S. payrolls data undershoot expectations, reinforcing bets on a hefty Fed rate cut in September.

The U.S. dollar faces further downside risk if Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report delivers another disappointment, MUFG Bank analyst Lee Hardman said in a note.

• A weaker-than-expected print would bolster bets the Federal Reserve will restart rate cuts at its September 17 meeting, with a 50-basis-point reduction on the table, he added.

Markets are currently pricing in a 25-bp cut this month and more than 100 bps of easing by September 2026. Only a substantially stronger-than-expected jobs report would be enough to dissuade the Fed from easing next month, Hardman said.

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The NFP is due on Friday September 5 at 8.30 am US Eastern time: