More Trump: Meeting UK PM tonight. may even approve a trade deal. GBPUSD is lower.

Pres. Trump continues to talk and says:

• Meeting with UK PM Starmer tonight (he is heading to the UK).
• Says may even approve a deal.
• On UK trade: We will talk more fine tuning on deal.

The GBPUSD is trading lower today, following the release of weaker-than-expected UK retail sales, which added fresh downside pressure and reinforced the pair’s bearish technical bias.

Technically, the pair peaked late Wednesday/early Thursday near a confluence of resistance:

• The 50% midpoint of the July trading range at 1.35764

• A swing area between 1.35760 and 1.35918

The high reached 1.3586 before rotating sharply to the downside.

On Thursday, the pair moved down to test the 100-hour moving average (blue line). Today, the downside momentum continued, with price breaking below the 200-hour moving average at 1.3464 — a key bearish signal — and extending toward the next target at 1.3414, which has now been tested.

What’s next?

• Sellers’ risk is now defined by the 200-hour moving average at 1.3464, possibly up to 1.3475 (the top of a nearby swing zone).

• Remaining below this area keeps bearish control intact.

• A break back above would reduce bearish bias and shift short-term risk.

For further downside momentum, GBPUSD would need to:

• Break below 1.3414

• Then target the monthly low

• And ultimately the broader swing area between 1.33607 and 1.33784

On the macro front, President Trump commented this morning that he would “never say he wants a lower dollar,” but admitted that “it’s hard to sell goods with a stronger dollar.” These remarks may influence USD sentiment, especially amid concerns about inflation tied to dollar weakness.

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