9 months ago
47
The recent three-week rally of 4.5% in the USD/JPY, from its 1 July 2025 low of 142.68 to the 16 July 2025 high of 149.19 (a three-month peak), has reached a potential inflection zone of 149.00/149.60, where the next probable move is a decline back towards the bottom of a three-month ascending sideways range configuration in place since 22 April 2025.
Preferred trend bias (1-3 weeks)
Bearish bias with key medium-term pivotal resistance at 149.00/149.60 for the next supports to come in at 145.55, 145.85 (also the 20-day moving average), and 145.20 (also the 50-day moving average).
Key elements
- The key inflection zone/resistance of 140.00/149.60 on the USD/JPY is defined by a medium-range top in place since May 12, 2025, the 200-day moving average, and a Fibonacci extension level.
- The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has traced out a recent bearish divergence condition at its overbought region from 15 July to 18 July, which suggests that the upside momentum of the up move in the price actions of USD/JPY from 1 July to 16 July has waned.
- Price actions have gapped down below the minor ascending channel support from 1 July low on Monday, 21 July Asian session in reaction to Sunday’s Japan upper house election results, retested pull-back resistance of the former minor ascending channel support before it inched low by 0.9% to print an intraday low of 147.08 during the US session.
Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks)
A clearance above 149.60 shifts the focus back to the bulls for a range breakout scenario to propel the USD/JPY higher for the next resistances to come in at 150.40 and 151.15/30 (medium-term swing highs of 3 March/27 March 2025).
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About the Author
Kelvin Wong
Senior Market Analyst
Based in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities.
Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets.
In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.
Based in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities.
Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets.
In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.
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